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Re: Earl's not coming to camp

Postby Don Gorgon on Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:09 pm

here is a look at how important Earl is from a 49ers blogger

https://www.ninersnation.com/2017/9/16/ ... to-defense
 
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Re: Earl's not coming to camp

Postby HawkBowler on Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:18 pm

"Earl was so good that he could leave his responsibilities and go after the football simply because he instinctively knew what the quarterback was trying to do," said former Texas coach and current ESPN analyst Mack Brown. "By the third game of his first season, we knew he wasn't going to just be good. He was going to be great."


If this were true Earl would have more interceptions. The biggest reason he doesn't have more picks is because he doesn't make enough plays on the ball. In other words, he's not doing what ESPN claims he's so great at.... leaving his responsibility to make a play on another man's receiver. Sherm excels in that category, Earl does not. You don't see Earl anywhere near the ball on most pass plays. Now part of that is respect by opposing QBs staying away from him, but it's also true that Earl doesn't get in on the action enough.

Earl's greatest strength is tackling and stopping the run. That's usually what you expect out of your LBs and SS but not the FS. We don't need our FS to have 80+ tackles every year. What we need or more interceptions, fumble recoveries.... sacks.... Earl does very little of those things if we're going to compare him to the GOAT safeties of the past. He's good but he doesn't impact games the way he should with the reputation he has.
 
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Re: Earl's not coming to camp

Postby Michael K 2 on Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:26 am

When you play deep CF you only get to make a play on a ball if the other team is taking deep shots down the field. I imagine there aren't a ton of opportunities. The same excuse you give for why Sherm didn't have more picks.

As a matter of fact, your argument for Sherman staying and Earl leaving was the fact that Sherman turned the ball over more.

Sherman has played 66 games in the last four seasons. He has 12 INTs, or 0.18 per game. In the same four years Earl has played 57 games and has 10 INTs, or 0.18 per game. Wow, what a huge difference! :lol:

Wait, there is more than one way to get a turnover right? How about the fact that in his career, Earl has forced 11 fumbles and recovered 5. If we use the same four season split as above he has forced 6 fumbles and recovered 2.

Sherman? In his career he has forced 5 and recovered five with only 1 forced and 2 recovered in the last four years.

So, tell me again why letting Sherman go was a huge mistake because he is a turnover machine and why Earl is really only a run supporting FS because he doesn't create enough turnovers?

Maybe they won't resign him, but it will be mostly because he is too expensive and doesn't really want to be here. It certainly won't be because he isn't a weapon on pass defense!
 
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Re: Earl's not coming to camp

Postby HawkBowler on Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:01 pm

So you're comparing Earl's numbers to Sherm's numbers AFTER teams stopped throwing in Sherm's direction because he was the most dangerous CB in league.

No other CB has as many picks during his career as Sherm. Can the same be said of Earl compared to other free safeties?

Great spin by you btw... you should offer to represent Earl.
 
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Re: Earl's not coming to camp

Postby Michael K 2 on Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:19 pm

HawkBowler wrote:So you're comparing Earl's numbers to Sherm's numbers AFTER teams stopped throwing in Sherm's direction because he was the most dangerous CB in league.

No other CB has as many picks during his career as Sherm. Can the same be said of Earl compared to other free safeties?

Great spin by you btw... you should offer to represent Earl.


What you saw last year was teams avoiding Sherm? OK. And the argument is the same. Do you really remember teams taking a ton of deep shots with ET on the field? He plays his position better than anyone else. To even ponder that a guy that is credited by every defensive coach the Hawks have had for taking away the deep ball as a guy that is best in run support is very silly.

But fine, how about career numbers. Sherman has 105 games, 32 INTs, 5 FF and 5 FR. 42 turnovers in 105 games. Or about 0.4 turnovers per game for his career.

ET has played in 121 games, has 25 INTs 11 FF and 5 FR. Or, 41 turnovers in 121 games. O.33 per game.

I would say when you factor in the positions played, that extra 0.07 turnovers that Sherman got us per game isn't all that eye popping.
 
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Re: Earl's not coming to camp

Postby HawkBowler on Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:19 pm

Earl has more opportunities to go where the ball is thrown as a FS. If he were truly better than Sherm, as you seem to suggest, wouldn't he have more picks?

Taking one great player over another is not a slight to either player.

This thread is about Earl's value to the team. Reading some of these comments, you would think that Earl is as important to the defense as Wilson is to the offense. Losing Earl would be more like losing Baldwin on offense. It would hurt, but it's not going to destroy the team.

When our D was in it's prime, I ranked Earl as the 4th most important on the D side behind Sherm, Wagoner and Bennett. In fact, when we really had it going, an argument could be made that Kam was more important as well.
 
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Re: Earl's not coming to camp

Postby Michael K 2 on Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:21 pm

I have posted the numbers, not going to do it again. This defense, statistically, was better without Sherman and with ET than the other way around.
 
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Re: Earl's not coming to camp

Postby HawkBowler on Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:05 pm

You need a bigger sample size than just a handful of games. I still think Sherm was our best defender. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he has an all-pro season with the 49ers. Don't know what ya got till it's gone I guess. Maybe I'll come to the same conclusion in the future with ET, but right now, I see him a spoiled brat who's not worth as much as he thinks he is.
 
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Re: Earl's not coming to camp

Postby Michael K 2 on Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:45 pm

I've heard Clayton talk many times about our defensive ratings last year after he left. We do know what we are missing. So does the organization....he is no longer good enough to make up for his mouth.
 
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Re: Earl's not coming to camp

Postby HawkBowler on Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:15 pm

Earl really should be talking to Kam right about now because he's using his playbook.

What happened to Kam? Same deal. Last year of contract. Wants more money. Willing to hold out. And how did that end? Kam ends up coming back to the team week 3 with his tail between his legs. His absence and distraction contributed to a slow start for the team with no real personal bennefit. Earl is on the same course and needs to come to his senses.
 
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