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Re: R. Penny your new 1st round KO returner

Postby ThePro on Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:26 am

Michael K 2 wrote:No one is criticizing Penny. We are saying that this organization either misjudged Penny's talents, if Penny was a fit here, the talents of the current RBs on the roster, or a combination of all the above. That is a criticism of Pete and John.


^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I'm sorry but that is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen posted on here..
Hawkbowler wrote:How do you know what Pete and John are thinking? That's the error in your argument. You don't know. They could be really high on Penny, but they see Carson and Davis as better right now. If those two guys were sucking, which they're not -- we currently have the #3 rushing attack in the NFL -- I could see your point.

The other factor is that players are drafted for the long haul. Not for just one season, and certainly not for just one half of a season when the player is not even on the field.

Just relax....



Now this is a good post.. ^^^^^^^^
 
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Re: R. Penny your new 1st round KO returner

Postby HawkBowler on Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:31 am

D-Trains wrote:Here is my issue with PC and JS.

I build pharmaceutical forecast models for a living. First I independently take all of the inputs and assumptions and put them in my model and come up with peak sales typically 5-7 years after the drug is launched. So I have my forecast.

But instead of just sending it to the client and saying here it is, I go to a database with Wall street analyst estimates for the same drug for a sanity check to make sure I haven't missed anything. Usually I am fairly close to what they have but if I am off by hundreds of millions of dollars I go through my assumptions again to make sure I didn't miss anything.

I expect PC and JS do their own independent analysis of each draft prospect which is great. But I suspect that instead of trying to validate their assessments by utilizing the plethora of 3rd party resources available to them they think that since they did so well from 2010-2012 that they still think they are smarter than everyone else. So they just ignored the fact that Penny wasn't rated as a top 5 RB by ANYONE else on the planet. Its stubborn arrogance imo and it looks like it will cost them again.

dt


USA Today ranked Penny 5th

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 516172002/

Good stuff on the pharmacuetical analytics, but I don't think that's relative to the NFL draft in any way. You have the tougher job.
Last edited by HawkBowler on Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: R. Penny your new 1st round KO returner

Postby HawkBowler on Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:35 am

Michael K 2 wrote:
HawkBowler wrote: If those two guys were sucking, which they're not -- we currently have the #3 rushing attack in the NFL -- I could see your point.


You see nothing, not one single point. The fact that we are having success running the ball without the guy we used a first round pick on means that pick could have been better utilized on a player that plays a different position.

HawkBowler wrote:The other factor is that players are drafted for the long haul. Not for just one season, and certainly not for just one half of a season when the player is not even on the field.


First round picks are not looked at as investments for the future. That is the single issue half of the posters in here seem to miss out on. In your mind we used a first round pick on a guy that will back up Carson for all but one year of his rookie contract?


HawkBowler wrote:Just relax....


Here is my problem, besides the fact that is an Aaron Rodgers line, is that I am relaxed. It amazes me that people come in here to talk about their favorite team, but refuse to accept that fact that others might have a different opinion. BUT, when someone else DOES have a different opinion they are either

1. Less of a fan
2. Freaking out

Nope, I just feel we used a first round pick on a player we didn't need, so we should have picked someone else. But God forbid we discuss that on this forum. It is fine to rip Cable and Bevell to shreds, fine to finger point and call names about race or politics, but by no means should we be of the opinion that the FO might have made a mistake on a draft pick. Because if you do you need irrefutable evidence to support and if that player is finally above average in the middle of his rookie contract you will need to "eat crow." Ridiculous.


1. Every team is hoping that their first round pick starts right away. Most teams are disappointed.
2. Carson is surprising everyone. Again, the #3 rushing attack is great. Check our rankings from last year... with Carson and with Davis. Do you really think it was clear at that point that we didn't need a RB?
3. I don't mind disagreements... I like it... love it... otherwise we just get the lame back and forth. However, you gotta be truthful and fair or you get called out. It's always been that way.
 
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Re: R. Penny your new 1st round KO returner

Postby Michael K 2 on Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:00 pm

HawkBowler wrote:1. Every team is hoping that their first round pick starts right away. Most teams are disappointed.


You think most teams are disappointed?

HawkBowler wrote:2. Carson is surprising everyone. Again, the #3 rushing attack is great. Check our rankings from last year... with Carson and with Davis. Do you really think it was clear at that point that we didn't need a RB?


So, we are OK that the guys making decisions on talent here in Seattle, who to keep, who to let walk, who to bring in and who to pay, are surprised by a guy they have had on their team since the Spring of 2016?

I am not saying that doesn't happen. It happens everywhere, and I am sure fans everywhere talk about it.

HawkBowler wrote:3. I don't mind disagreements... I like it... love it... otherwise we just get the lame back and forth. However, you gotta be truthful and fair or you get called out. It's always been that way.


Who hasn't been truthful or fair? We used a first round pick on a guy that is third string at his own position. If the Rams did that we would be talking about how smart they are?
 
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Re: R. Penny your new 1st round KO returner

Postby ThePro on Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:12 pm

Michael K 2 wrote:
HawkBowler wrote:1. Every team is hoping that their first round pick starts right away. Most teams are disappointed.


You think most teams are disappointed?

HawkBowler wrote:2. Carson is surprising everyone. Again, the #3 rushing attack is great. Check our rankings from last year... with Carson and with Davis. Do you really think it was clear at that point that we didn't need a RB?


So, we are OK that the guys making decisions on talent here in Seattle, who to keep, who to let walk, who to bring in and who to pay, are surprised by a guy they have had on their team since the Spring of 2016?

I am not saying that doesn't happen. It happens everywhere, and I am sure fans everywhere talk about it.

HawkBowler wrote:3. I don't mind disagreements... I like it... love it... otherwise we just get the lame back and forth. However, you gotta be truthful and fair or you get called out. It's always been that way.


Who hasn't been truthful or fair? We used a first round pick on a guy that is third string at his own position. If the Rams did that we would be talking about how smart they are?


You're..

1. Less of a fan

2. Freaking out
 
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Re: R. Penny your new 1st round KO returner

Postby HawkBowler on Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:14 pm

MK2, you pointed to Carson and Davis as low round picks currently ahead of Penny to show that Penny must not be good. But now we're one of the best rushing teams in the league. That wasn't the case last year in terms of both production and staying on the field.

I for one was all in favor of drafting a RB in the first round. I wrote several posts to that effect because I didn't think that Carson or Davis were the long term answers. I still don't. But now that they're kicking ass, I have no problem with Penny on the bench. That's a great problem to have.

Pete is trying to reestablish his ALWAYS COMPETE mantra. He tells his players that it doesn't matter where they're drafted it's how they play that matters. So he had to give Carson and Davis the same opportunity as Penny. Those guys, however, have a year on Penny in terms of development.

Bitching about our 3rd ranked rushing attack is similar to bitching about Wilson. We're already good to great in those departments, but if we're not the very best there's a problem?
 
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Re: R. Penny your new 1st round KO returner

Postby Michael K 2 on Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:51 pm

HawkBowler wrote:MK2, you pointed to Carson and Davis as low round picks currently ahead of Penny to show that Penny must not be good. But now we're one of the best rushing teams in the league. That wasn't the case last year in terms of both production and staying on the field.


And? That warrants a first round pick that can't get onto the field?

HawkBowler wrote:I for one was all in favor of drafting a RB in the first round. I wrote several posts to that effect because I didn't think that Carson or Davis were the long term answers. I still don't. But now that they're kicking ass, I have no problem with Penny on the bench. That's a great problem to have.


In other words, as long as the guy already playing the position is good it isn't a waste to use a first round pick at that position? I guess next year we will take a LT or MLB? Yes, the run game is working....without the guy they used a first round pick on. That tells me that pick could have been better suited elsewhere.

HawkBowler wrote:Pete is trying to reestablish his ALWAYS COMPETE mantra. He tells his players that it doesn't matter where they're drafted it's how they play that matters. So he had to give Carson and Davis the same opportunity as Penny. Those guys, however, have a year on Penny in terms of development.


Once again, I guess next year we better take a LT or MLB in the 1st round so Brown and Wagner have someone to compete with?

HawkBowler wrote:Bitching about our 3rd ranked rushing attack is similar to bitching about Wilson. We're already good to great in those departments, but if we're not the very best there's a problem?


I am not bitching about anything. I am saying that the running game works without the guy they took in the first round, so I wish they had taken some one that plays a different position. Another problem here....unless you sit in a circle with your hand in the lap of another guy you are bitching.

You guys can sit in circles and jerk. I'd rather not.
 
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Re: R. Penny your new 1st round KO returner

Postby Hindemith on Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:18 pm

HawkBowler wrote:
Hindemith wrote:None of the draft prognostication websites thought Penny was the best RB in college last year. Some didn't even list him in their top 10. Get real.


He was in every top 10 I saw. Do you have a reference? Barkeley was clearly the favored back, but Penny was 2nd on almost every board. The Pats took Michel right after we took Penny. Guess what -- they wanted Penny too.

You guys who make judgments on players just because they're not on the field... how do you know? I mean seriously... enlighten us. Especially what Pete is thinking in his head. I didn't know we had such clairvoyants on the board.

I believe you when you say he was in every top 10 list that you saw. I had to look pretty hard to find one that didn't just now, but I don't recall which sites I was looking at back before the draft and it is likely that the ones I remembered as not including Penny were probably top 5 lists. On the other hand, you are way off to say he was 2nd on most boards. From the first 15 or so lists I just perused he was ranked 2nd on only one (a ProFootballFocus article) and probably averaged around 6th. Here they are....

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/d ... -nfl-draft
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/276 ... aft#slide0
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... p-rb-class
http://walterfootball.com/draft2018RB.php
http://www.drafttek.com/2018-NFL-Draft- ... -Draft.asp
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 516172002/
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/7 ... b-rankings
https://247sports.com/nfl/minnesota-vik ... 117274995/
https://athlonsports.com/nfl/nfl-draft- ... backs-2018
https://www.mockout.com/2018/03/officia ... nfl-draft/
https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/04 ... erspective
https://dynastyfootballfactory.com/cart ... ings-1-10/
http://draftanalyst.com/ranking?position=RB&year=
http://insidethepylon.com/football-101/ ... ings-10-1/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLod_r6cR5w
 
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Re: R. Penny your new 1st round KO returner

Postby HawkBowler on Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:19 pm

I am not bitching about anything. I am saying that the running game works without the guy they took in the first round, so I wish they had taken some one that plays a different position. Another problem here....unless you sit in a circle with your hand in the lap of another guy you are bitching.

You guys can sit in circles and jerk. I'd rather not.
Michael K 2




Oh stop being a mother screwer and a weener mouther...LOL

Your argument doesn't work without hindsight. Again, we had Carson and Davis on the team last year and our run game was ranked #23. Do you mean to tell us that you knew that Carson and Davis would have us all the way up to #3 this season? Probably not, but you think Pete and John should have known and selected another position.
 
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Re: R. Penny your new 1st round KO returner

Postby HawkBowler on Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:23 pm

Hindemith wrote:I believe you when you say he was in every top 10 list that you saw. I had to look pretty hard to find one that didn't just now, but I don't recall which sites I was looking at back before the draft and it is likely that the ones I remembered as not including Penny were probably top 5 lists. On the other hand, you are way off to say he was 2nd on most boards. From the first 15 or so lists I just perused he was ranked 2nd on only one (a ProFootballFocus article) and probably averaged around 6th. Here they are....



You're right, I was being lazy. However, I do remember diving into his tape and stats after he was selected and not being disappointed in the least. In fact, I don't remember any of the regular posters on this board saying, "Oh f^ck, we just drafted C Mike 2.0."
 
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