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Re: Postmortem - Wildcard Edition: Seahawks v Cowboys

Postby auroraave on Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:23 am

Michael K 2 on Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:13 pm

I said it earlier, but we went pass happy the first two weeks of the season. How did that work out?

Develop a quick passing attack, and not one that asks the QB to pat the ball for an eternity then run around in circles until the scramble play opens someone up.
Get a big receiver. David Moore was a fun little experiment while it lasted, but sometimes guys are fifth round picks for a reason.
If Fant is going to be our TE, turn him into a TE. Otherwise, IMO, his presence on the field is merely an announcement that we are running the ball.

This offense was the second highest scoring offense in Franchise History, so a complete change in philosophy makes little sense to me. Give Schotty a few weapons in the passing game, figure out how to run an intermediate passing attack and build off what we just did! IMO this team is easily a year or more ahead of where anyone not named Hawkbowler imagined.


They're definitely ahead of schedule - they exceeded my expectations. However - let's be real - they faded down the stretch - they lost to SF (shitty game), looked horrible against the cardinals (anyone see they hired Kliff Kingsberry....whaaaa?), and struggled mightily vs Dallas. I;m struggling with the Earl of it all. Love another season from him, but he's kind of a dick. He is exactly what the defense needs - but please, no one tell him that.

Until they get receivers with size, I just don't see how they can have success with those quick or intermediate routes - 5'10 throwing to 5'10 in traffic... just not sure that's the recipe for success. Losing Dissly hurt - dude's a big target, takes up a lot of space. Seattle needs to invest in the position and seriouisly strengthen the passing game. This is the NFL - you simply have to be able to pass effectively. Anyone can just stack the box and shut you down and then you have no plan B. It's narrow fucking minded.

And please - ignore the stats - I am talking situationally. I don't care what the stats say - the optics tell me when you go three and out because you cannot pass in passing situations - you have a problem. All the successes the stats preach made no difference against dallas and Arizona. A few games of distorted success only mask the failures.
12 drives vs Dallas - six three and outs. Those are all the stats I need to see. Watching it live was worse.

This team simply needs more talent - they have an interesting window - the best linebacking duo in the league won't be around much longer - that position needs an upgrade. And how much time left with RW? Can't pay a guy $35 million a year to average 225 yards passing. It's simply not economically practical. Use the guy to his full potential, whatever that is, or free up the cap space. This offense cannot get out of second gear far too many times. This whole 'let's try to frantically win it in the fourth quarter' routine is just not necessary - especially when you have an RW. Would really like an updated philosophy. I've said it many times. You can get ahead early and beat teams down.

Anyone see arians went to Tampa? Jesus...why? I like Arians and his cockiness - but what a bizarre retread hire. Now he has to stare at the worst fucking uniforms in the history of sports. Who the F approved those abominations? Bring back the orangesickles!
 
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Re: Postmortem - Wildcard Edition: Seahawks v Cowboys

Postby HawkBowler on Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:33 am

aurorave wrote:And please - ignore the stats - I am talking situationally. I don't care what the stats say - the optics tell me when you go three and out because you cannot pass in passing situations - you have a problem. All the successes the stats preach made no difference against dallas and Arizona. A few games of distorted success only mask the failures.
12 drives vs Dallas - six three and outs. Those are all the stats I need to see. Watching it live was worse.


Statistically speaking, Wilson's best season was 2015 with 68% completion, 4,024 yards, 34 TDs and 8 picks. This last season was close - 65% completion, 3,448 yards, 35 TDs and 7 picks. The difference is completion percentage and that's the most important factor when it comes to third down conversions.

Three and outs have been a problem since Beast mode left. He not only kept the third downs manageable but he was also an excellent dump off receiver to move the sticks. I think the problem is that the offense is not using the RBs enough in the passing game. Drew Brees is throwing nearly 40% of his passes to his running backs. I would be surprised if even 5% of Wilson's passes are going to the backs. Carson caught only 20 passes this season. Zeke Elliot caught 77 passes.

It's funny how right Don Gorgon was.... It's Pete's offense and the OC has to work within the frame that he insists on. I don't think Pete likes the screen game, because often times the screen gets blown up and the play ends up losing yards. Pete doesn't like negative plays. He's fine with chugging along at 1,2,3 yard advancements, but as soon as a play loses five yards he wants it removed from the playbook.

Pete pointed to the three and outs as the key problem against Dallas. It's really the key problem in every game we lose. And I don't think Pete hid the fact that he thinks Wilson needs to do better. But Wilson is not creating the game plan. It's difficult to QB a team that goes run run pass nearly every time. That puts tremendous pressure on the QB to complete third downs. Wilson is geared toward not turning the ball over, especially early in games, so he doesn't take chances. Even if the team goes consistently three and out, though, they still stay in the game if they don't turn the ball over.

Pete might need another adjustment like early this season. Let Schotty and Wilson figure it out.
 
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Re: Postmortem - Wildcard Edition: Seahawks v Cowboys

Postby Michael K 2 on Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:41 am

The three and outs aren't because we don't have Beast Mode anymore. We were the best running team in the NFL and still struggl d with three and outs. The issue is we are down right pathetic in intermediate passing, so much so that on third and fourth and short we take shots! Big time offensive flaw.
 
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Re: Postmortem - Wildcard Edition: Seahawks v Cowboys

Postby HawkBowler on Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:46 am

When you go run run pass, the defense knows exactly what's coming on third down. This makes it difficult on Wilson and also difficult on the OC to call creative plays. It's easy for Wilson to throw intermediate passes on first and second down when the defense doesn't expect it, but how often do we do that?

We need to throw more to the backs. I think that's clear. What's your answer?
 
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Re: Postmortem - Wildcard Edition: Seahawks v Cowboys

Postby Michael K 2 on Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:32 pm

HawkBowler wrote:When you go run run pass, the defense knows exactly what's coming on third down.


I am not sure of your point anymore. First you said the three and outs are bad because we no longer have Beast Mode. Third and short it third and short. If you run it twice to get to third and two or throw it twice to get to third and two, it is still third and two. How you got there matters not at all. Are you saying that if we draw an offsides for five yards and then run for two that is somehow different than running it twice for 7 yards? The bottom line is our medium to short passing game is crap, and that hurt our chances of converting third downs.


HawkBowler wrote:This makes it difficult on Wilson and also difficult on the OC to call creative plays. It's easy for Wilson to throw intermediate passes on first and second down when the defense doesn't expect it, but how often do we do that?


Once again, that has nothing to do with converting third down. If you never get to third down because you pass on first and second that is a totally different thing. LOTS of teams get into third and manageable and are able to convert. We are not really one of those teams, and the fact that we can't complete a freaking five yard pass on third and four is a big reason.

HawkBowler wrote:We need to throw more to the backs. I think that's clear. What's your answer?


Better weapons. I heard a lot about what a pass catching weapon Penny was going to be, yet our third down back was Mike Davis. David Moore right now is a one trick pony, and his one trick is not getting open on short to medium routes, it is running a fade. Jaron Brown might be a 0 trick pony, Ed Dickson is a decent second TE but isn't much of a threat in the passing game.

But, the biggest thing, in my opinion, is scheme. I just find it absolutely baffling that in 2015 they got whooped by the Cards and had one of the worst offenses I have ever seen to get to 4 and 5. They finished the last 7 games of that season 6 and 1, and it was ALL based on a quick passing attack, designed to get the ball out of Russ's hands and quickly into the hands of receivers. Why has that been next to impossible since? Is Pete that allergic to the forward pass that our only options are dump offs on third and long and deep shots on third and short?

As good as this team was this year, the passing attack besides the big plays was very frustrating. Obviously Dallas knew there pass rush was good enough that we wouldn't be able to get as many deep shots and that hamstrung us. Seems SF and AZ figured that out as well.

Better pass catchers will help, but ANY type of progressive decision to update the passing attack would be nice as well. Once again, I had more fun watching this team this year than in any of the past two or three years, so this really is nit picking. But I would like Dissly to be the 2nd TE and more of a blocking option, so that means getting a pass catcher at that position. Yes, I realize that position seems to be on a down turn right now so it might be simply a wish. I would like to see us get a big bodied capable pass catcher at WR that will allow either of the other two to play in the slot, were little dudes like them belong! Even if Baldwin is in the slot, having a bigger option on the other side of Lockett can't hurt, especially on third and short to medium.

But, more importantly, I would like to see us move into the new era, where a QB throws a ball on time, he doesn't need to stand there and see the WR wide open, he can throw a guy open. I don't think Pete allows that....or Russ doesn't trust the receivers. Either way, that needs to change some.
 
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Re: Postmortem - Wildcard Edition: Seahawks v Cowboys

Postby McFrisky on Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:18 pm

THANK you! i remember the quick pass offense. i think he was getting hit too much and Russell and Pete got it together and the offense was humming along. And since then? All but forgotten. i just don't 'get' it. Running and quick passing would be nice. And, that was with Doug Baldwin and just a bunch of dudes, wasn't it?
 
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Re: Postmortem - Wildcard Edition: Seahawks v Cowboys

Postby Michael K 2 on Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:16 am

I wonder how much of it is about timing and the fact that with the new CBA they barely have time to practice? I can't think of very many teams that run it and throw it well. Add in the salary cap and maybe it is just that hard to have an offense that is diverse?
 
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Re: Postmortem - Wildcard Edition: Seahawks v Cowboys

Postby HawkBowler on Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:25 am

MK2 wrote:But, the biggest thing, in my opinion, is scheme. I just find it absolutely baffling that in 2015 they got whooped by the Cards and had one of the worst offenses I have ever seen to get to 4 and 5. They finished the last 7 games of that season 6 and 1, and it was ALL based on a quick passing attack, designed to get the ball out of Russ's hands and quickly into the hands of receivers. Why has that been next to impossible since? Is Pete that allergic to the forward pass that our only options are dump offs on third and long and deep shots on third and short?


For a possession football team like the Hawks, what's the key advantage to running over passing?

When you run the ball the clock keeps moving. When you pass the ball and it goes incomplete the clock stops. It's really that simple.

All those years we ended up with the number one scoring defense were also years in which our defense played the fewest number of snaps of any other team. It turns out the best defense is an offense that stays on the field forever and changes field position.

Holmgren's SB XL squad was a possession football team. They were adept at the 8 minute drive capped with a TD. Just three or four of those and victory is nearly assured. The difference was that that team moved the ball with Hasselbeck and the short quick hitting passing game while Alexander provided the home run plays. Our team is opposite in that we move the ball with the run and hit the home run with the pass.

A possession football team is always going to be frustrating to guys who like to watch wide open offense. Guys like aurorave, for example. It just doesn't look right. It doesn't pass the eye test. But that doesn't mean it's not an effective way to play football that's beneficial to both sides of the ball. Success on one side of the ball leads to success on the other side.

The Hawks offense didn't look good in Dallas. One could go by the stats and conclude that the defense did all the work, but that's not the case. Both sides of the ball usually end up playing around the same amount of time. The score on the board doesn't affect the defense... well, maybe psychologically but not physically. It's when the offense doesn't chew up enough of the clock that more is forced on the other side of the ball and they get worn out. But the over-all effectiveness of this strategy is self-evident -- even when the offense looks like crap, as long they don't turn the ball over, we stay in the game, down by usually only one possession.

Pete's wet dream is to one day win a football game 2-0. He doesn't care about yards or points. He cares about controlling the game, keeping it close and trying to win in the 4th quarter. This is still an effective strategy in the NFL because most games are decided by one possession. What's most important for a team like the Hawks is to be highly effective on that last possession that wins the game. Although I agree with the sentiments you've written many times in that it would be nice to start faster, score more points in quarters 1,2, and 3 and not have to rely on late game Wilson heroics to win.
 
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Re: Postmortem - Wildcard Edition: Seahawks v Cowboys

Postby oldgoat33 on Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:57 am

D-Trains wrote:What do amoebas armadillos and polliwogs have in common? They all adapt to survive. What do Pete Carroll and Chris Peterson's offenses have in common? They both don't adapt and die.


EXCELLENT ANALOGY !
 
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Re: Postmortem - Wildcard Edition: Seahawks v Cowboys

Postby ThePro on Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:23 am

Ummmm I'm gonna have to disagree with the problem with the scheme analysis. That offense put up some pretty impressive stats for there to be a problem schematically out of nowhere for one game.

At what point do you give credit to the opponent? Looks like a young assistant that is familiar with Hawks wanted to stick it to his old boss for firing him if you ask me and he did..
 
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