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reflecting on the Malik McDowell pick

Postby Don Gorgon on Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:31 pm

thought this was interesting from Condotta's mailbag, yeah McDowell was one of the biggest flops in Hawk history but look at who they picked up by moving down to get him, i mean i keep hearing how stupid it is to move down and all

Of course. Malik McDowell will go down as one of the worst picks in Seahawks history for all the obvious reasons, and the ripple effect of that is still being felt now — just think what the Seahawks’ defensive line could have looked like the past two years if McDowell had been what the team hoped, teaming with Frank Clark and Jarran Reed.

At least the Seahawks moved down in the 2017 draft to get him at 35 instead of their initial spot at 26. Three different trades to move from 26 to 31, 34 and finally 35 netted Seattle four extra picks, three of whom were significant contributors this year and could be for seasons to come — Chris Carson, Tedric Thompson and Delano Hill. Seattle also took Mike Tyson with one of the picks it got in the trades it made to move down.
 
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Re: reflecting on the Malik McDowell pick

Postby rockycola on Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:30 am

Don Gorgon wrote:thought this was interesting from Condotta's mailbag, yeah McDowell was one of the biggest flops in Hawk history but look at who they picked up by moving down to get him, i mean i keep hearing how stupid it is to move down and all

Of course. Malik McDowell will go down as one of the worst picks in Seahawks history for all the obvious reasons, and the ripple effect of that is still being felt now — just think what the Seahawks’ defensive line could have looked like the past two years if McDowell had been what the team hoped, teaming with Frank Clark and Jarran Reed.

At least the Seahawks moved down in the 2017 draft to get him at 35 instead of their initial spot at 26. Three different trades to move from 26 to 31, 34 and finally 35 netted Seattle four extra picks, three of whom were significant contributors this year and could be for seasons to come — Chris Carson, Tedric Thompson and Delano Hill. Seattle also took Mike Tyson with one of the picks it got in the trades it made to move down.

In totality, when you put it in that perspective it wasn't as bad as one would think, considering the return on the trades while dropping down in the draft.

Still, McDowell was a flop as he screwed himself by taking fun risks.
 
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Re: reflecting on the Malik McDowell pick

Postby Don Gorgon on Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:33 am

that is what i think gets missed about trading down, scouting players is difficult, actually ranking them for their abilities. It seems to be the opinion you should move up and concentrate on a single more talented player, but that is not easy to determine and is risky. What you do by trading down is cover your bet, yeah, you are going for numbers. They made a single pick into five picks, and yeah the highest ranked one busted but they covered their bet fairly well with the additional picks.
 
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Re: reflecting on the Malik McDowell pick

Postby Don Gorgon on Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:46 am

here is an article i posted before about it, looking at in terms of economic theory. Generally speaking teams should look to trade down when possible as opposed to trading up. You better be pretty darn certain of your player when you trade up, off the top of my head the times the Hawks have traded up its worked, but i can only think of a couple of times they have done it

its dealing with the Bills trading up to take Watkins with the fourth pick in the 2014 draft, they moved up four spots i think and gave up an additional first round pick. It could be the trade climate has in fact altered since then
A series of papers by economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler has shown that at any given position, historically, the odds of the top player picked (Watkins) being better than the third player picked (Beckham) is just 55 percent or so.

"It's basically a coin flip," Massey, who serves as a draft consultant with several NFL teams, told me last year, "but teams are paying a great deal for the right to call which side of the coin."

Because teams just aren't that good at evaluating a player's chance of success, Massey and Thaler's analysis says in the current trade market, teams are better off trading down whenever they get an offer — that is, trading one high pick for multiple lower ones, in order to diversify risk. But many teams, like the Bills, become overconfident in their evaluation of one particular player and do the opposite: they package several slightly lower picks for the right to take one player very early.


https://www.vox.com/2015/4/30/8516007/n ... -economics
 
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Re: reflecting on the Malik McDowell pick

Postby D-Trains on Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:20 am

Might want to consider we had to give up a second round pick and Kearse to replace McDowell just to complete the analysis.

dt
 
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Re: reflecting on the Malik McDowell pick

Postby douche on Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:14 pm

Some people make poor choices. And some fall victims to circumstance. Either way, it's unfortunate as McDowell may have been a real contributor.
 
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Re: reflecting on the Malik McDowell pick

Postby Michael K 2 on Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:15 pm

D-Trains wrote:Might want to consider we had to give up a second round pick and Kearse to replace McDowell just to complete the analysis.

dt


And we act as though there is no possible way we could have drafted any of those guys otherwise? Good Lord, they traded down AND drafted McDowell....they could have drafted anyone with that pick and STILL got the other players and STILL gotten more out of the deal. Am I missing something here?

Budda Baker, Zay Jones, Forrest Lamp, Dalvin Cook, Sidney Jones and Joe Mixon are just a small sample of players taken AFTER the great Malik McDowell! We could have had those guys and several others PLUS the guys mentioned there. I don't even get the logic behind mentioning who we got for trading down....they used the pick on someone who never played a down in the NFL.
 
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Re: reflecting on the Malik McDowell pick

Postby Don Gorgon on Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:19 pm

D-Trains wrote:Might want to consider we had to give up a second round pick and Kearse to replace McDowell just to complete the analysis.

dt


they chose to, not sure they had to, that to me was a decision to really try and compete that season, I don't believe even under the best circumstances Malik would have been that productive his rookie season, he was always going to be a project.
 
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Re: reflecting on the Malik McDowell pick

Postby D-Trains on Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:26 pm

Michael K 2 wrote:
D-Trains wrote:Might want to consider we had to give up a second round pick and Kearse to replace McDowell just to complete the analysis.

dt


And we act as though there is no possible way we could have drafted any of those guys otherwise? Good Lord, they traded down AND drafted McDowell....they could have drafted anyone with that pick and STILL got the other players and STILL gotten more out of the deal. Am I missing something here?

Budda Baker, Zay Jones, Forrest Lamp, Dalvin Cook, Sidney Jones and Joe Mixon are just a small sample of players taken AFTER the great Malik McDowell! We could have had those guys and several others PLUS the guys mentioned there. I don't even get the logic behind mentioning who we got for trading down....they used the pick on someone who never played a down in the NFL.


This guy who was the last pick of the first round in 2017 who many here wanted them to take might have been a good pick too:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... f-the-year
 
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Re: reflecting on the Malik McDowell pick

Postby Don Gorgon on Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:30 pm

yeah they could have taken someone else and also traded down...where did i say they had to take Malik? The point is if the guy turns into a bust if you have generated more picks then you have a greater chance of getting someone of value there. That is what covering your bet means, its working on the assumption the original bet busts
 
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