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Re: WHAT IF.....this forum had gotten it's spring wish?

Postby WARwhatisitgoodfor on Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:33 am

I wanted to sign Ross as a shot at lightning in a bottle bounceback candidate to battle for the #5 spot and hopefully overperform.

I wouldn't have waited long to dfa him as you guys know about me.

Fortunately for us the Mariners did not sign him, because when they have a few million bucks wasted on a guy, they make the GM, manager, team and fans suffer by keeping the dead weight on the roster.

It almost seems like a message to the GM so he's careful with the payroll dollars. You can use the money, but whatever you buy you're gonna live with..
 
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Re: WHAT IF.....this forum had gotten it's spring wish?

Postby D-Trains on Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:38 am

2017WSorBustGoMs wrote:Tyson Ross has been a bust for the Rangers. TOS is proving to be a bitch of an injury. Like Dipoto, I wanted Jason Hammel. Hammel wasn't looking too good at the beginning of the year but he has ended up being serviceable for Kansas City tossing 165 innings. I've got question for you stat geeks - how come Hammel has a WAR of 1.9 thus far with an 8 & 11 record and 4.91 ERA while Nova shows 1.2 WAR with an 11 & 13 record and 4.25 ERA? I'm assuming it's because Nova bats in the NL but that seems kind of F'd up.

I know people love to rag on Dipoto for bringing Gallardo to Seattle but that certainly wasn't his plan. The mistake imo, if you want to point fingers, was exercising the option in Smith's contract. The expectation was that Smith would be moved to Tampa as part of the deal for Smyly and that Hammel would be signed on a one year $10M deal. That fell apart when Hammel balked at the one hear deal and the Rays decided to go another direction and sign Rasmus as the market dropped. Dipoto was then saddled with Smith's $7M and needed to make a move - hence Gallardo. In hindsight, I do wonder if it would have made any difference for this season if Dipoto had just let Smith walk.


Tough one. First of all Nova hitting in the NL has nothing to do with his WAR but his pitching in the NL does. AL is obviously a tougher league to pitch in so if 2 pitchers have similar numbers the AL pitcher is going to have higher WAR. Also Wins and Losses have nothing to do with WAR. fWAR is based on FIP and Hammel's is 4.41 and Nova's is 4.49. Hammel's fWAR is 1.9 and Nova's is 1.7 so I suspect the difference is Leagues. The ballparks seem comparable based on ballpark factors.

Maybe Ice sees something that I might be missing.

dt
 
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Re: WHAT IF.....this forum had gotten it's spring wish?

Postby D-Trains on Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:39 am

WARwhatisitgoodfor wrote:I wanted to sign Ross as a shot at lightning in a bottle bounceback candidate to battle for the #5 spot and hopefully overperform.

I wouldn't have waited long to dfa him as you guys know about me.

Fortunately for us the Mariners did not sign him, because when they have a few million bucks wasted on a guy, they make the GM, manager, team and fans suffer by keeping the dead weight on the roster.

It almost seems like a message to the GM so he's careful with the payroll dollars. You can use the money, but whatever you buy you're gonna live with..


It was a reasonable suggestion and I am surprised that he looks to be done. I guess TOS is the kiss of death.

dt
 
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Re: WHAT IF.....this forum had gotten it's spring wish?

Postby D-Trains on Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:50 am

WARwhatisitgoodfor wrote:I wanted to sign Ross as a shot at lightning in a bottle bounceback candidate to battle for the #5 spot and hopefully overperform.

I wouldn't have waited long to dfa him as you guys know about me.

Fortunately for us the Mariners did not sign him, because when they have a few million bucks wasted on a guy, they make the GM, manager, team and fans suffer by keeping the dead weight on the roster.

It almost seems like a message to the GM so he's careful with the payroll dollars. You can use the money, but whatever you buy you're gonna live with..


Exactly and nothing has changed with this "NEW" ownership group.

dt
 
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Re: WHAT IF.....this forum had gotten it's spring wish?

Postby ice99 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:05 am

D-Trains wrote:
2017WSorBustGoMs wrote:Tyson Ross has been a bust for the Rangers. TOS is proving to be a bitch of an injury. Like Dipoto, I wanted Jason Hammel. Hammel wasn't looking too good at the beginning of the year but he has ended up being serviceable for Kansas City tossing 165 innings. I've got question for you stat geeks - how come Hammel has a WAR of 1.9 thus far with an 8 & 11 record and 4.91 ERA while Nova shows 1.2 WAR with an 11 & 13 record and 4.25 ERA? I'm assuming it's because Nova bats in the NL but that seems kind of F'd up.

I know people love to rag on Dipoto for bringing Gallardo to Seattle but that certainly wasn't his plan. The mistake imo, if you want to point fingers, was exercising the option in Smith's contract. The expectation was that Smith would be moved to Tampa as part of the deal for Smyly and that Hammel would be signed on a one year $10M deal. That fell apart when Hammel balked at the one hear deal and the Rays decided to go another direction and sign Rasmus as the market dropped. Dipoto was then saddled with Smith's $7M and needed to make a move - hence Gallardo. In hindsight, I do wonder if it would have made any difference for this season if Dipoto had just let Smith walk.


Tough one. First of all Nova hitting in the NL has nothing to do with his WAR but his pitching in the NL does. AL is obviously a tougher league to pitch in so if 2 pitchers have similar numbers the AL pitcher is going to have higher WAR. Also Wins and Losses have nothing to do with WAR. fWAR is based on FIP and Hammel's is 4.41 and Nova's is 4.49. Hammel's fWAR is 1.9 and Nova's is 1.7 so I suspect the difference is Leagues. The ballparks seem comparable based on ballpark factors.

Maybe Ice sees something that I might be missing.

dt

If you've tried to actually calculate a WAR, at least with positional player fWAR, you will notice that there are adjustments, one of them are league adjustments. I haven't tried to calculate a pitcher fWAR, but I've calculated FIP.

The league average ERA in 2017 for AL starters is 4.59 and the NL is 4.44. I suspect the base that BRef is using has a higher difference.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/st ... /league/al

The park factor for Pittsburg is .99 and KC 1.03 so that benefits Hammel. Nova pitched on the road (without the help of his home field park factor) in Coors and got shelled so his ERA took a hit. The FIP is probably more closer to his value. That's all I have, without researching it further.
Last edited by ice99 on Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: WHAT IF.....this forum had gotten it's spring wish?

Postby D-Trains on Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:10 am

Makes sense. Thanks.

dt
 
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Re: WHAT IF.....this forum had gotten it's spring wish?

Postby D-Trains on Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:15 am

Obviously either Nova or Hammel would have been our second best starter using any metric.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &players=0

btw speaking over being serviceable for the Royals, Sam G. got his first win for them last night.

dt
 
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Re: WHAT IF.....this forum had gotten it's spring wish?

Postby 2017WSorBustGoMs on Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:39 pm

ice99 wrote:
D-Trains wrote:
2017WSorBustGoMs wrote:Tyson Ross has been a bust for the Rangers. TOS is proving to be a bitch of an injury. Like Dipoto, I wanted Jason Hammel. Hammel wasn't looking too good at the beginning of the year but he has ended up being serviceable for Kansas City tossing 165 innings. I've got question for you stat geeks - how come Hammel has a WAR of 1.9 thus far with an 8 & 11 record and 4.91 ERA while Nova shows 1.2 WAR with an 11 & 13 record and 4.25 ERA? I'm assuming it's because Nova bats in the NL but that seems kind of F'd up.

I know people love to rag on Dipoto for bringing Gallardo to Seattle but that certainly wasn't his plan. The mistake imo, if you want to point fingers, was exercising the option in Smith's contract. The expectation was that Smith would be moved to Tampa as part of the deal for Smyly and that Hammel would be signed on a one year $10M deal. That fell apart when Hammel balked at the one hear deal and the Rays decided to go another direction and sign Rasmus as the market dropped. Dipoto was then saddled with Smith's $7M and needed to make a move - hence Gallardo. In hindsight, I do wonder if it would have made any difference for this season if Dipoto had just let Smith walk.


Tough one. First of all Nova hitting in the NL has nothing to do with his WAR but his pitching in the NL does. AL is obviously a tougher league to pitch in so if 2 pitchers have similar numbers the AL pitcher is going to have higher WAR. Also Wins and Losses have nothing to do with WAR. fWAR is based on FIP and Hammel's is 4.41 and Nova's is 4.49. Hammel's fWAR is 1.9 and Nova's is 1.7 so I suspect the difference is Leagues. The ballparks seem comparable based on ballpark factors.

Maybe Ice sees something that I might be missing.

dt

If you've tried to actually calculate a WAR, at least with positional player fWAR, you will notice that there are adjustments, one of them are league adjustments. I haven't tried to calculate a pitcher fWAR, but I've calculated FIP.

The league average ERA in 2017 for AL starters is 4.59 and the NL is 4.44. I suspect the base that BRef is using has a higher difference.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/st ... /league/al

The park factor for Pittsburg is .99 and KC 1.03 so that benefits Hammel. Nova pitched on the road (without the help of his home field park factor) in Coors and got shelled so his ERA took a hit. The FIP is probably more closer to his value. That's all I have, without researching it further.


Thanks guys - in general all makes sense.
 
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