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Re: 2018 Mariner ZiPS projections

Postby ice99 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:39 am

Kenkokan wrote:
ice99 wrote:
D-Trains wrote:
dt

The M's are projected to have 10 WAR from the rotation.

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.as ... &teamid=11


I think ZiPS and Fangraphs calculate WAR differently, but both agree that Seattle is hovering around 31-34 WAR on paper. In other words, not remotely good enough to compete. Like let's look at the sidebar here for other potential playoff teams in 2018.

The summary for the ZIPS that Carson Cistulli wrote only shows 10 pitchers. If you use what is expected for the bullpen and rotation, the ZIPS is about 9 WAR for SP and 6 WAR for the bullpen.
 
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Re: 2018 Mariner ZiPS projections

Postby toomuchgarlicsalt on Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:01 am

I remember Dan Szymborski quite a few years talking to people who wanted to be hired by MLB teams, people who were writing for smaller sites about baseball, like USS Mariner and a few others. People were surprised that a person could get such a good job learning and fine tuning Saber/stats, as MLB teams went all in on Saber.

Now Dave Cameron of FG was hired to lead the Saber Dept. for the Padres the other day, I think that makes the 6th or 7th from FG that has been hired by a MLB team.

KIley McDaniel went from doing Prospect lists and analytics for FG to Braves Asst Director of Baseball Operations a bit over two years ago.

Bradley Woodburn who does a lot of analytics for Mlbtraderumors and also once worked at FG, and other sites also was hired to the Marlins Saber dept.

Crazy how starting work for these sites, putting time in learning the in and outs of Analytics leads to such great jobs with Mlb teams, from working in the saber depts, all the way to working just under the GM, as asst to baseball operations. While just a few days before they were writing pieces on analytics for different web sites.
 
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Re: 2018 Mariner ZiPS projections

Postby ice99 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:44 am

Too bad Cameron wasn't hired a month earlier and stopped the Headley trade.
 
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Re: 2018 Mariner ZiPS projections

Postby toomuchgarlicsalt on Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:41 pm

ice99 wrote:Too bad Cameron wasn't hired a month earlier and stopped the Headley trade.
Why would they do that, both teams got what they want. SD likes Mitchell's upside and their payroll is already stripped to nothing, which then allowed them to trade Solarte for prospects.

NY had 2-3 deals for Headley, not sure what your point is.
 
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Re: 2018 Mariner ZiPS projections

Postby ice99 on Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:52 pm

toomuchgarlicsalt wrote:
ice99 wrote:Too bad Cameron wasn't hired a month earlier and stopped the Headley trade.
Why would they do that, both teams got what they want. SD likes Mitchell's upside and their payroll is already stripped to nothing, which then allowed them to trade Solarte for prospects.

NY had 2-3 deals for Headley, not sure what your point is.

Judging by the Padres' deal, those other deals weren't that great.

Career stats of 5.86 K/9, 4.03 BB/9. Mitchell was probably not making the 25 man roster, and with no options, probably cut.

They still could have traded Solarte for prospects, they would have one to two less wins,. It would have probably been better for the Pads - better draft picks.
 
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Re: 2018 Mariner ZiPS projections

Postby toomuchgarlicsalt on Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:16 pm

I know Mitchell's stats but it was his upside that SD was willing to buy. I dont really agree with it but that was their reasoning along with them having next to nothing on payroll, with headley coming back to where he was for so long. A move to make a move.

It is surprising to see what some teams will do, Yanks supposedly have a couple takers for Ellsbury as long as they include some prospects, so teams with low payroll are willing to eat it for a couple prospects, both teams get what they need, but surprising that some teams are interested in doing that.
 
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Re: 2018 Mariner ZiPS projections

Postby ice99 on Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:06 pm

toomuchgarlicsalt wrote:I know Mitchell's stats but it was his upside that SD was willing to buy. I dont really agree with it but that was their reasoning along with them having next to nothing on payroll, with headley coming back to where he was for so long. A move to make a move.

It is surprising to see what some teams will do, Yanks supposedly have a couple takers for Ellsbury as long as they include some prospects, so teams with low payroll are willing to eat it for a couple prospects, both teams get what they need, but surprising that some teams are interested in doing that.

Yep, that's why Cameron would stop it, well probably.
 
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Re: 2018 Mariner ZiPS projections

Postby ddraig on Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:58 pm

After the 'Stros signed Cole, I think our Zips 'r slipping.
 
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Re: 2018 Mariner ZiPS projections

Postby WARwhatisitgoodfor on Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:57 am

Dave Cameron is the worst. Literally the only person in the world that I have a lower opinion of than weebs. Don Gorgon being a close third.

Cameron said Nick Swisher was worth $100 million for crying out loud. Thank God it was the Padres that hired that buffoon, not us.

He'll get fired for crying like the little mamas basement pansy that he is when he makes his stupid recommendations and the Padres go another way.
 
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Re: 2018 Mariner ZiPS projections

Postby D-Trains on Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:35 am

WARwhatisitgoodfor wrote:Dave Cameron is the worst. Literally the only person in the world that I have a lower opinion of than weebs. Don Gorgon being a close third.

Cameron said Nick Swisher was worth $100 million for crying out loud. Thank God it was the Padres that hired that buffoon, not us.

He'll get fired for crying like the little mamas basement pansy that he is when he makes his stupid recommendations and the Padres go another way.


he also said Nelson Cruz was the worst signing of the offseason that he signed
 
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